With March nearing and conference play heating up, the levels in the Big Ten are starting to become clearer. The conference expanded to an 18-team conference tournament after only having 15 teams last season, meaning every program has a chance to win, but some are better than others.
Nebraska is still one of three teams in the country without a loss. Illinois, Michigan and Michigan State all only own one conference loss. While Penn State is 0-8 and the lone team winless in the Big Ten.
There’s no doubt the Big Ten is hard. Just look at the conference’s second-place ranking on CBB Analytics in Net Rating (21.6), which is just 0.1 behind the SEC. The Big Ten also bolsters six teams inside the top 25 in the NET rankings, 10 in the top 50 and 14 teams in the top 100.
But as January rolls on, it’s starting to become make-or-break season for NCAA tournament chances.
Keaton Wagler’s masterclass, Purdue’s disasterclass
Let me get this out of the way: One player carried Illinois to a win over Purdue. However, at the end of the day, a win is a win.
Keaton Wagler’s 46-point performance could have been the best freshman outing of Saturday, but he wasn’t even the only first-year player with over 40 points. Houston’s Kingston Flemings scored 42 points in a loss to No. 12 Texas Tech, while BYU’s AJ Dybantsa had a school freshman record 43 points in a win over Utah.
However, Wagler’s production this season is more unprecedented than Dybantsa’s or Fleming's, who were both top 20 prospects. Wagler came out of Shawnee Mission Northwest High School as the No. 143-ranked recruit in the Class of 2025.
On Saturday, Wagler connected on 13 of 17 field goals, including going 9-for-11 on his 3-point attempts, and made 11-for-13 from the line. The effort is the most points ever scored by an opposing player at Mackey Arena since freshman Trae Young scored 48 points for Oklahoma in 2018.
David Mirkovic’s 12 points were the only other double-digit output from an Illinois player. Andrej Strojakovic went 0-for-3 from 3-point range to finish with five points. Tomislav Ivisic compiled eight points and three rebounds.
But the effort from Wagler was enough for the Fighting Illini to overcome Braden Smith’s 27 points and 12 assists, plus Trey Kaufman-Renn’s 12 points. Even though Purdue shot nine percentage points better from the field, Illinois knocked down 18 3-pointers throughout the contest.
The Boilermakers were only down by two points with 45 seconds left after a Smith 3-pointer. But with 9.3 seconds remaining and the Fighting Illini leading by four points, an errant pass from Omer Mayer that was intended for Oscar Cluff flew out of bounds and gave possession back to Illinois.
It’s a crucial stretch of games for the Fighting Illini, as senior guard Kylan Boswell’s right-hand injury will force him to miss at least a month. Boswell was averaging 14.3 points, 4.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game while shooting 82% from the free-throw line. Illinois will still have to find production against Washington on Thursday and at Nebraska on Sunday.
Can UCLA’s upset of Purdue get the Bruins back on track?
UCLA came into the 2025-26 campaign preseason ranked No. 12 in the AP Poll. But seventh-year head coach Mick Cronin’s squad hasn’t lived up to its expectations.
The Bruins dropped three games in Big Ten play to Iowa, Wisconsin and Ohio State. But their worst loss of the season came against KenPom’s 75th-rated team, California, in November. Before Tuesday, it was a résumé that had UCLA firmly on the bubble.
But the Bruins welcomed No. 4 Purdue into the Pauley Pavilion and might have changed the course of their season. UCLA capitalized on crucial mistakes by the Boilermakers in crunch time, and a 3-pointer by Tyler Bilodeau helped the underdog upset Purdue 69-67.
It was finally a breakout performance from Donovan Dent. He finished the contest with 23 points and 13 assists, with his final one coming on the game-winning basket. The 2025 Mountain West Conference Player of the Year has had an up-and-down season in Los Angeles. After averaging 20.4 points per game last season, Dent still averages a third-most 12.9 points per game for the Bruins, but an abysmal 17.2% from 3-point range has limited him.
Still, Dent and UCLA put together an impressive performance on Tuesday, even with Skyy Clark out of the lineup due to a hamstring injury. With Clark and his 13.5 points per game sidelined, Dent, Trent Perry, plus Jamar Brown and Eric Freeny continued the Bruins’ momentum from Tuesday into a 71-64 win over Northwestern on Saturday.
For Purdue, the two losses this week took the Boilermakers out of the driver's seat in the Big Ten. However, it was the program’s second and third defeats of the season and first two in conference. Purdue is still a high-level team that will be fighting for a one-seed come March.
But UCLA was a disappointing loss for the Boilermakers, as they blew a 12-point lead in the first half, and two late-game turnovers from Braden Smith basically gave the game away. Smith has been a consistent source of offense for Purdue, but UCLA was able to hold him to 12 points on a 5-for-13 performance from the field and four turnovers. C.J. Cox led the way with 16 points, while Trey Kaufman-Renn was the only other Boilermaker in double-digits.
“Nebrasketball” keeps on rolling in Big Ten play
One of the best stories in college basketball this season keeps on getting sweeter, as Nebraska took down Washington 76-66 on Wednesday and Minnesota 76-57 on Saturday to continue its undefeated season. The Cornhuskers are one of three teams in the NCAA to not have a blemish on their record, along with Arizona and Miami (OH), and earned their highest ranking in program history at No. 7.
Pryce Sandfort and Rienk Mast have been stars for the Cornhuskers, with the pair combining for 35 points Wednesday night and 30 on Saturday. Sandfort recorded his fourth straight game with at least 20 points to bump his points total up to 17.3 per game, which ranks 14th in the Big Ten, while Mast is averaging 14.6 points and 6 rebounds per contest.
But Nebraska will have to continue its “next man up” mentality, as Braden Frager sprained his left ankle in the first half against Washington. The redshirt freshman forward was contributing 12.2 points per game and knocking down 53.7% of his shots from the field.
The Cornhuskers' seven-man rotation will get even shorter in the upcoming games on their schedule. Nebraska has already lost Connor Essegian and Ugnius Jaruševičius to injuries this season, but Tulsa transfer Jared Garcia has the potential to step up against No. 3 Michigan on Tuesday and No. 11 Illinois on Sunday.
Alijah Arenas’ USC debut overshadowed by loss to Northwestern
After concluding a relatively easy nonconference schedule with zero losses, USC has faltered to start Big Ten play. The Trojans have played tough opponents in conference, such as Michigan, Michigan State and Purdue, but losses to Washington and Northwestern on Wednesday have hurt USC’s NCAA tournament résumé.
However, even after the 74-68 loss, the Trojans have hope going into the rest of the season. Five-star freshman Alijah Arenas finally played his first minutes in a USC jersey after crashing his Tesla Cybertruck in April 2025, which placed him into a medically induced coma, and suffering a knee injury in July 2025.
Arenas finished the contest with a 3-for-15 performance from the field, including going 0 for 6 from range, to compile eight points, two rebounds and two assists in his 29 minutes. It wasn’t a pretty performance by any means, but the potential is there.
Only five and a half minutes into the game, the son of NBA All-Star Gilbert Arenas made a behind-the-back move that dropped one defender before doing a spinning layup around another defender for the basket.
But for a team that is inching closer to the bubble, the only highlight that USC needs is a win, which the Trojans received on Sunday. Chad Baker-Mazara knocked down five 3-pointers and scored 29 points, while Ezra Ausar added 17 points to defeat Wisconsin 73-71.
Losing Rodney Rice’s 20 points per game in November after a season-ending shoulder surgery has hurt the Trojans considerably, but Arenas has a chance to pick up some of the missing projection.
On the flip side, Northwestern finally won its first Big Ten game of the season. The 9-11 Wildcats have the Big Ten leading scorer in Nick Martinelli (23.4 ppg), but shoot the second-worst percentage on 3-pointers (31%) and have the fifth-worst defensive rating (109.5).
Northwestern has been able to keep games close against good opponents — 10-point losses to Michigan State and Illinois — while only losing to Rutgers by two points in overtime. But if opponents slow down Martinelli, the Wildcats don’t have pieces that can step up.
Ohio State and Minnesota deliver…again
After last season’s two overtime thriller, where Ohio State won 89-88, the two teams gave fans another down-to-the-wire game. This time, it only took one extra period for the Buckeyes, as they defeated the Golden Gophers 82-74 in overtime Tuesday.
John Mobley Jr.’s strong performance of a tied-for-game-high 26 points and Bruce Thornton’s 23 helped secure the win for Ohio State. Colin White’s steal and score gave the Buckeyes a 76-71 lead with 1:49 left in overtime, which was an amount that Ohio State was able to hold onto.
It was a back-and-forth affair for much of the game, including the final four minutes of regulation featuring 11 consecutive lead changes. Minnesota answered almost all of Ohio State’s buckets, and vice versa.
But it was an impressive result for a Buckeye group that needs to start stacking conference wins. Ohio State is now 5-4 in the Big Ten after a 74-62 loss to Michigan on Friday and is firmly on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament. One bad week and the Buckeyes are out. One good week and Ohio State doesn’t have to play at the First Four in Dayton.
And speaking of a bad week, or weeks, Minnesota has now lost five consecutive Big Ten games after losing to Nebraska on Saturday. In head coach Niko Medved’s first season in Minneapolis, the Golden Gophers rattled off résumé-boosting wins against Indiana and Iowa, but they have trailed off since then.
They’re not bad losses, USC, Wisconsin, Illinois and Nebraska, but Minnesota now sits at 3-6 in the Big Ten and 10-10 overall. It was an uphill climb if the Golden Gophers even had a chance to make the NCAA Tournament after nonconference losses to San Francisco, Stanford and Santa Clara.
Still, Minnesota has talented players in Cade Tyson, Jaylen Crocker-Johnson and Langston Reynolds, three players that opposing teams can’t overlook, but the lack of bench production has killed the team. Also, the Golden Gophers have a smaller team compared to the rest of the Big Ten, which is shown in them losing the rebounding battle in their last six games.
One Game to Watch Every Day This Week
Monday Jan. 26
Penn State @ Ohio State, 7 p.m., FS1
Tuesday Jan. 27
No. 7 Nebraska @ No. 3 Michigan, 7 p.m., Peacock
Wednesday Jan. 28
USC @ Iowa, 7 p.m., BTN
Thursday Jan. 29
Washington @ No. 11 Illinois, 9 p.m., FS1
Friday Jan. 30
No. 3 Michigan @ No. 10 Michigan State, 8 p.m., FOX
Saturday Jan. 31
Indiana @ UCLA, 5 p.m., Peacock
Sunday Feb. 1
No. 11 Illinois @ No. 7 Nebraska, 4 p.m., FS1
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