On Tuesday, the first 18-team Big Ten tournament will start. The new format features the bottom four teams having no byes, teams 14-9 having one bye, teams 8-5 having two byes, and the top four having the triple bye. The United Center in Chicago has put the Big Ten tournament logo on the court, and so the stage is set. Every team has the chance to punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament, or make a case as to why they should be in the tournament. Eighteen teams, one trophy, all starting Tuesday on Peacock.
Every tournament has its favorites, its contenders and its dark horses to win the whole thing. This article will go into who those teams are, and how they could make a run to the championship game on selection Sunday, as well as providing my personal predictions for the tournament.
Favorite
Michigan sits on the throne at the top of the league with a 19-1 conference record on the season. They are the clear favorite in the league as they have had a near perfect season that has really demonstrated their rosters depth. They also recently have answered the question that arose when guard LJ Cason tore his Achilles, ending his season, by having guards Roddy Gayle Jr. and Trey McKenney step up. Michigan just came off of a gritty win over Michigan State, which sets up Michigan as the clear favorite to repeat as a winner of the Big Ten tournament championship.
The strength all season for the Wolverines has been their front court depth. Between Aday Mara, Yaxel Lendborg, Morez Johnson Jr. and even Will Tschetter, Michigan has plenty of big man depth that allows them to do multiple different lineups. This was really shown in the Michigan State game where they had several minutes where Lendeborg was the center, despite starting as the small forward for the team. This versatility is something that is unique to Michigan this season and it is a large component as to why they have been a top three team all season long.
To find a weakness in Michigan's game you have to get extremely nit-picky. The weaknesses could be their guard depth after the Cason injury, but they answered that question the last two games. The other issues could be that several teams have found success in mucking up the game. Michigan likes to play a fast paced, creative style of play, and feels less comfortable in a slow paced grit and grind game. Duke used this blue print to be able to beat Michigan earlier this season, but even that game came down to the final possession. Michigan is a team that sits atop the Big Ten, and it is for good reason. They have extremely legitimate goals of winning a national title game in Indianapolis this April.
Contenders
Nebraska started out the season 20-0 but has now gone 6-5 in their last 11 games. They have a team that is very reliant on perimeter shooting, so if the Cornhuskers get hot at the right time, they can go on a deep tournament run. Nebraska has never won an NCAA tournament game in their history, and they are seeking their first win and more this season.
Michigan State is 5-1 in the last six games and is a really good Tom Izzo team. They kill teams on the offensive glass, and with transition offense and defense. Jeremy Fears Jr. is a polarizing figure as he has been one of the most dominant guards in basketball all season long, while also getting accusations of being the dirtiest player in college basketball. He has had several incidents where he makes moves that refs have considered non-basketball movements, and the rest of the league is very aware of it. Michigan State and Fears however seem to be using this as a chip on their shoulder in order to motivate them to a run in March. The issues for the Spartans fall with three point shooting. They have two really good perimeter shooting guards in Kur Teng and Jordan Scott, and a great stretch big in Jaxon Kohler, but Coen Carr and Fears need to step up from the three point line for Michigan State to win the tournament.
Illinois has the most efficient offense in the nation according to KenPom. They are led by freshman Keaton Wagler, and shoot a lot of threes. They also have a deep lineup, especially with their scoring division. They have four players who average 13 points or higher, and five players in double digits. Illinois' main struggle all season has been coming up with wins in crunch time, but they are definitely a team that can make a tournament run.
Wisconsin has beaten Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue and Illinois all throughout this season. They have two elite guards in Nick Boyd and John Blackwell, and it sets them up as a team that can win any game. There is a common belief that guards win in March and Wisconsin is hoping to carry out this sentiment. The main struggle of Wisconsin comes with their lack of defense, and with the inconsistencies of their offense. They however, have the capabilities to shoot the lights out and win a basketball game against anyone.
Purdue features senior guard Braden Smith who is the best individual player in the conference. They have a very mature team, and are very capable of contending for a title. They have been disappointing as of late, especially with them coming into the season as preseason rank no. 1. They are the number two team in offensive efficiency according to KenPom, and they score at an elite level. The problems lie with their defense that just doesn’t seem strong enough, especially in a year where elite defenses dominate the sport.
Dark horses
UCLA feels like they should be a contender, but they have no conversation around them. They have Tyler Bilodeau and Donovan Dent as a star duo. Dent is averaging 13.6 points and 7.5 assists per game this season for the Bruins. Mick Cronin always seems to be the storyline for this team as he seems to have no filter. Recently he got into an altercation with a reporter, calling them out for asking a dumb question. He has flirted with the hot seat this year, but now has his team firmly in the NCAA tournament, and looking to make a stronger case.
The Iowa Hawkeyes and first year head coach Ben McCollum are very much alive in the Big Ten title contention. They run the 358th fastest offense in college basketball, and love to utilize Bennett Stirtz to score late in the shot clock. Their greatest weapon is being a matchup nightmare for teams, including teams like Michigan who like to run and gun. The team is ultimately extremely balanced and that is their main strength heading into the tournament. The weakness could come with their size on the interior, and how it makes them not a great rebounding team.
Ohio State's all time leading scorer Bruce Thornton has his team rolling on into the tournament picture after sitting on the bubble for the past few weeks. The team will look to put their last impression on the committee, in a spot where they are likely a team playing in Dayton as of right now. They are an offensive minded team, who finds themselves heating up at the right time currently. They are looking to ride the momentum to the tournament.
The hometown Hoosiers are a dark horse because of their shooting ability, but their play as of recently hasn’t deserved this status. The Hoosiers went 1-5 in their last six games and now find themselves on the outside looking in. Lamar Wilkerson is a name that deserves everyone's respect, but outside of him the Hoosiers lack both size and depth. Indiana’s bench production has been a problem all season, and it has put too much pressure onto the shoulders of Wilkerson and Tucker DeVries. With Indiana likely needing wins over Penn State/Northwestern, Purdue, and Nebraska to make the NCAA tournament, this will likely be the final week in Darian DeVries’ first season as the head coach in Bloomington.
Minnesota is an unusual team, but that unusualness will certainly provide them with the dark horse label. They play a zone defense that in certain games gets completely picked apart, but in others it looks like a prime Syracuse one defense. This defense plus the three point shooting of star guard Cade Tyson, leads them to be a sneaky contender against any team that they face off against. They have a very manageable game one against an inferior Rutgers, and then will have the opportunity to face UCLA. If they can get hot in these two matchups it could spark a Cinderella run for the Gophers.
My Picks
When picking who will face off against each other in the semi-finals and the finals I looked into past matchups and how these teams matchup stylistically. Sometimes a team is better than the other, but they lose due to a stylistic strategy. I will predict both of the semi-final matchups as well as who will win the whole thing.
I believe that Michigan will face off against the Wisconsin Badgers in a rematch of their one loss this season. I also believe that UCLA will meet Nebraska for the second semi-final match. Michigan will be motivated to beat Wisconsin who had their number earlier this season, and will handle them with ease. Then Nebraska will cause Mick Cronin to have one final crash out, as they win in a close battle over the Bruins. Then after both teams have played and won two games in two days, the championship game will be quite chalky with the best two teams in the league. Nebraska and Michigan will both play inspired basketball, but ultimately they will both play with tired legs. The shooting will be sloppy and the game low scoring. I will take Michigan to survive a slugfest because of free throws and offensive rebounding, as Michigan claims its second straight Big Ten Tournament championship.
