When thinking about finding a hidden title contender, I cannot help but to attempt to draw parallels to the 22-23 UConn team, who struggled in the middle of the season, but was able to move past it and heat up for tournament play. They ended up as the national champions as a four seed that to many seemed to come out of nowhere. The closest anyone got to taking them down was Miami who still lost by 13 points in the semi-final. It was one of the more memorable runs in modern history, as they were purely dominant the whole way through.
I know that last season there weren’t any random teams in the Final Four. In fact last season it was all four one seeds who took the trip out to San Antonio, Texas. This exercise I am performing is hopeful that this will not become a common trend in college basketball. This drill hopes there will be a surprise contender who makes a run to Indianapolis this spring.
In this article I will attempt to find those diamonds in the rough teams that can go all the way in the tournament — that team that appears to come out of nowhere and then goes on a March Madness run. I will attempt to diagnose who is capable of an out-of-nowhere surprise appearance in the Final Four.
Wisconsin (18-8)
The Badgers had a really rough start to the season, but have inserted themselves as the giant killers of this year. With three top-10 wins, including a win at No. 1 Michigan, they have made a name for themselves as a team you don’t want to see. Nick Boyd and John Blackwell both average 19 points or more per game, and are threats from all three levels of scoring. They are a team that is made for a run in March as guard play carries in the tight and stressful setting that is the March Madness tournament. They have won nine of their last 12 games in Big Ten play, and seem to be in prime condition for tournament success. They have weaknesses that can hurt them, specifically when they are not hitting their shots. Their defense is never going to be elite, so when they don’t hit the 3-ball at an elite enough rate, they are going to be put in scenarios that could lead to upsets.
St. John’s (20-5)
Rick Pitino’s squad has won 11 straight Big East games and appears to be peaking at the correct time in the season. Most notably they took down No. 3 UConn in Madison Square Garden. This marked their only ranked win of the season, and showed the world that the Johnnies aren’t to be messed with.
The parallels to the 22-23 UConn team are clear. Both are teams peaking at the right time from the Big East who will likely be a four seed in the tournament. Both teams rebound well and play tough and physical defensively branded basketball. Due to these parallels this St. John's team isn’t one to be messed with and can definitely make a tournament run.
Utah State (22-3)
The Aggies have been the best team out of the Mountain West all season long, but they still feel like a team that is under the radar. They are led by senior combo guard MJ Collins Jr., who averages 18.5 points per game. This team had two losses in a row earlier in the year but has looked as strong as ever since then. They are looking to carry momentum into tournament play. They shoot a high volume of 3s, and hit 36 percent of them. They are projected to be around a seven or eight seed in the tournament, and should get in as an at-large team if they don’t win the Mountain West Conference tournament.
Saint Louis (24-2)
Saint Louis prides itself on its relentless amount of depth, and on 3-point shooting. If you can’t confidently knock down the 3-ball, then you don’t see the court. They are the deepest mid-major with seven players averaging nine or more points per game. The worry for Saint Louis is that they haven’t had a tough schedule at all. They haven’t played any opponent that they would see in the tournament, and that is a problem, but the amount of offensive firepower that they have kept them in the race for a tournament run. They have some problems when they play sloppy and turn the ball over like they did Tuesday night in their loss to Rhode Island.
Louisville (19-7)
Guards Ryan Conwell and Mikel Brown Jr. lead one of the best offenses in the league as they present themselves as one of the best guard duos in the league. They have one of the better resumes in the league with six quad one wins. They also have won five of their last six games and appear to be peaking at the correct time. There are a lot of flaws with the Cardinals as they don’t have enough of an interior presence, which hurt them against SMU on Tuesday night. They will rely heavily on guard play and shooting as we head into tournament season. They haven't fared well when playing Duke, but they have looked better as of recent. They clearly have the talent to be an under-the-radar contender in March.
Alabama (18-7)
Nate Oats’ Alabama teams have presented challenges for tournament teams in the past, and this year could be the same. They play the fastest tempo in the nation and have the No. 3 ranked offense according to KenPom. Alabama shoots a lot of 3s and plays very fast. They shoot 35 3s a game and hit 35 percent of them, scoring 91.8 points per game along the way. This is the type of scoring volume that can give certain teams a lot of trouble in the tournament. The Tide have won four games in a row and are seeking a great game against Arkansas on Wednesday night.
Miami (21-5)
The guard/big duo of Tre Donaldson and Malik Reneau keeps Miami as a very relevant threat to go on a tournament run. Both players have had tournament experience and have stepped up in big games. Tre Donaldson most recently was the guy Michigan looked to hit a clutch shot when needed last season before he transferred to Miami. This duo keeps Miami as a threat to go on a run in the ACC tournament and the NCAA tournament. Experience plays a lot in the tough, tight games that the tournament scene will create. Especially those games where nothing is going well. Those are the games that Miami should be put in place to win. An example of this was Tuesday’s bout with Virginia Tech. It was a very ugly game, but Miami found a way and won 67-66.
Finding the next 22-23 UConn is not an easy task to do since they went on an insane run, and then carried it into the next season, but these are teams that all have the potential to heat up and win any game possible. They also are all flawed teams and need to peak at the right time or else they are susceptible to an early exit.
The difficulties with finding a team that is actually trending up are clear because there are so many teams in college basketball that are capable of pulling off a win every game. That's what makes the madness so special. It is so fun to watch somebody who has no right to win a game pull off an amazing upset. It’s a challenge to find the teams that are actually patching their flaws, and to find teams that improve every time they step on the court in order to be at their best come March.
