The WNBA Playoffs are right around the corner, with the first round set to tip off on Sept. 14. As such, teams and fanbases are beginning to focus their attention on the path to a championship and the steps it will take to reach one. For the Indiana Fever, the road to a WNBA title is a steep one. Despite being ravaged by injuries, the Fever march forward on the quest for a championship, leading their fans to wonder how difficult the first step of their postseason journey will be.
Notably, Indiana has not yet clinched a playoff berth. However, with just a handful of games remaining, the Fever have control over the eighth playoff spot with a considerably more favorable schedule than Los Angeles. The Sparks are the only team mathematically capable of stealing Indiana’s postseason slot.
Therefore, barring disaster, the Fever are in line to play game one of a playoff series on the road against one of the top teams in the league. As it stands, there is a clear separation between the top four teams and the rest of the pack. Minnesota, Atlanta, Las Vegas and Phoenix all safely hold home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Minnesota will undoubtedly hold the No. 1 seed, but slots two through four are completely up in the air.
If the most likely scenario occurs, and Indiana stays put in the No. 8 spot, they will take on Minnesota. If they manage to climb to No. 7 or even No. 6, their opponent is much more unknown. Due to this uncertainty, let’s rank the realistically possible playoff opponents for the Fever based on who the Fever would prefer to face in the first round.
4. Minnesota Lynx
To the surprise of very few, the Minnesota Lynx are who the Fever should fear the most. Minnesota has sat atop the standings with a multiple game cushion for months, and only got better at the trade deadline through the addition of Dijonai Carrington. Indiana has lost both regular season meetings with Minnesota, but knocked off the Lynx in the Commissioner’s Cup championship game.
The Lynx have the most dominant and enforcing defense in the league, rated No. 1 in the WNBA. The Lynx have the most dynamic and effective offense in the league, rated No. 1 in the WNBA. The kicker is, Minnesota has been in load management mode for the last few weeks of the season. The best team in the league will be rested when they host game one of a playoff series in front of a raucous crowd. Whoever steps foot inside Target Center as the No. 8 seed will have a very, very difficult time pulling off an upset.
3. Las Vegas Aces
The Las Vegas Aces have become the most impressive team of the back half of the season so far. Now winners of an astounding 14 consecutive games, Vegas has taken control of the No. 2 seed and is showing no signs of slowing down. A’ja Wilson is spectacular, and capable of taking over a game on both ends of the floor at any moment. Complementing Wilson is an overflowing supply of quality shooters and threats from around the arc.
All in all, the Aces seem to run on rocket fuel offensively, and have defended well enough to stave off quality performances from other championship contending teams. The result is a 14-game win streak that includes victories over six different projected playoff teams and nine different teams overall. Taking the floor against a buzzsaw like Las Vegas would dramatically diminish Indiana’s chances of advancing, indicating that Las Vegas is one of the least desirable first-round opponents.
2. Phoenix Mercury
Similar to the Aces, the Phoenix Mercury are peaking at the right time, having won eight of their last nine heading into the final few games of the season. Phoenix is just as caught up in the race for the No. 2 seed as Las Vegas is, confirming their status as a legitimate championship contender.
The similarities with Vegas don’t stop there, as the Mercury also sport an MVP contending superstar that is lethal in the painted area. In this case, it’s Alyssa Thomas, who put up 23 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists last time out against Indiana. Also, the backcourt in Phoenix is known to be capable of exploiting weak perimeter defenses, which is an area the Fever have struggled in as the landslide of injuries continues.
Phoenix may not be as objectively frightening as Minnesota or Las Vegas, but they are a bad matchup for the Fever, and will be difficult to beat all the same.
1. Atlanta Dream
By process of elimination, it can be concluded that the Fever should hope to face Atlanta in the first round of the playoffs. That being said, the Dream have a very well built roster and will be an extremely tough out in any round of the postseason. The frontcourt and backcourt complement one another very well, creating a balanced offensive attack with a strong presence between the blocks and dangerous shooting from outside.
The Dream are the most preferable opponent for the Fever for a straightforward reason and an abstract one. The more straightforward of the two is that the Dream are the one of the few playoff teams the Fever have beaten twice. Once at home and once on the road, the Fever came out on top against Atlanta. Knowing that as Indiana enters this hypothetical best of three playoff scenario would undoubtedly be reassuring for Stephanie White and her players.
The less concrete reason is that the Dream are the only Eastern Conference team on this list. Not only is travel less of a factor, the Fever are much more familiar with the Dream than they are any of the Western Conference squads. While that is theoretically advantageous to both sides, the Fever have undergone an astonishing amount of roster turnover since the beginning of the season in May. Stephanie White and the Fever are familiar with the Dream, but the Dream are not familiar with the set of players Indiana is currently putting on the floor.
Final thoughts
If Indiana successfully qualifies for the playoffs, surviving the first round will be an arduous task no matter who the Fever match up against. Every team on this list is immensely talented, currently performing incredibly well, and actively in the hunt for a WNBA title.
What benefits the Fever, however, is the fact that the first round of the WNBA playoffs is a best of three. Each individual game carries significantly more weight in the first round than it does in any other. If the Fever are going to win a playoff series, it’s most likely to occur in the first round, despite the strength of the opponent. For that reason, there is still plenty of postseason intrigue surrounding the Indiana Fever despite the injuries and setbacks they have encountered.
