“The sense of urgency has never been higher, and we have to find a way.”
That's what Indianapolis Colts owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon said at the end of last season regarding the job statuses of head coach Shane Steichen and general manager Chris Ballard.
Now, heading into Week 3 of the NFL season, the Colts sit at 0-2, and Steichen and Ballard have done themselves no favors in what appears to be a do-or-die season for them.
The Colts did see a considerable improvement from Week 1, as on Sunday night, they went toe-to-toe with one of the league's best, the Kansas City Chiefs.
In this game, Colts fans felt all the emotions of a back-and-forth game, but it ended the way so many of their games often do, close, but not close enough to win.
There were multiple opportunities for the Colts to win this game late. With 3:15 remaining in the fourth quarter, the score was tied at 27, and Daniel Jones and the offense took over at their own 18-yard line. After stringing together a few first downs, they faced a fourth-and-4 on their own 49 with 34 seconds remaining in the game. A conversion would have put kicker Spencer Sharder in field goal range with a chance to win it. Instead, Steichen elected to punt it away and take the game to overtime at Arrowhead Stadium.
Fast forward to the 5:09 mark of overtime and the Colts had a golden opportunity in front of them. Following a Chiefs field goal, the Colts knew that a touchdown would give them their first win of the season. After a controversial 48-yard bomb from Daniel Jones to Laquon Treadwell, Indianapolis was 17 yards away from a monumental win on Sunday Night Football.
From that point, the Colts stalled and faced a fourth-and-8 decision. Initially, Shane Steichen left the offense out on the field to go for it and try to advance the sticks, but after seeing the look the Chiefs defense showed, he retreated. Alternatively, the decision was to kick the field goal and give the ball back to Patrick Mahomes, a three-time Super Bowl champion and two-time MVP, with 3:11 left to play.
It didn't take an expert to predict what happened next once Mahomes got the ball back.
Not going for it on a fourth-and-8 in overtime is not a mind boggling decision at first glance, but once you analyze the actual situation that Shane Steichen and the Colts were in, it makes the decision look all the more indefensible.
Playing it safe may be the reason the Colts now sit at 0-2 and why there is an immense pressure building on Steichen and his staff. Making the Colts-Texans Week 3 matchup all the more telling of what's to come.
Both the Texans and Colts enter the game winless. Division rivals and desperate.
The Colts defense has allowed 1,029 yards, which is the most allowed in the NFL through the first two weeks since 2016. They will take on a Texans offense that couldn't find any success last weekend against the Cincinnati Bengals, scoring just six points in that game, while having C.J. Stroud throw 55 passes and completing only 30 of them.
This matchup against the Texans may reveal if the Colts defense is actually as bad as the stats show. Facing two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks in the first two weeks wasn’t ideal, but now a matchup against Stroud shouldn't be as much of a challenge.
If Indianapolis can’t capitalize against a struggling Texans offense at home, it will confirm every fear about where this season is heading.
A win or a loss may be a deciding factor in what Irsay-Gordon does from here.
Let’s say the Colts dominate on their home field and push a division rival into an 0-3 hole while picking up their first win. The offense continues to put up points on the board, and the defense finally breaks through, applying pressure and creating turnovers. If that happens, that would put Irsay-Gordon in a tough spot. Do you put the first two weeks in the past and continue to have full faith in Shane Steichen and Chris Ballard moving forward?
It seems that's the direction they are currently leaning, after signing free agent wide receiver Darius Slayton, a move made in light of the devastating injury to Alec Pierce. It’s a signal of continued belief, not only in the roster’s ability to contend, but also in Steichen and Ballard.
Now flip it. Let’s say the Colts continue to play the way they have been and get outplayed by a division opponent on their own turf and fall to 0-3. No fight on defense, a lack of urgency offensively and a coaching staff that once again is outcoached. That’s not the world that Irsay-Gordon wants to live in, but it would make her decision a whole lot easier. An 0-3 start after putting the most pressure there has ever been on the head coach and general manager to win would be inexcusable.
Not only would that outcome put Steichen and Ballard in a corner they can’t talk their way out of, but it would also suggest that the roster itself may just not be good enough to contend this season.
A fire sale of the roster and staff may end up being the route that Irsay-Gordon is pushed into if something is not fixed soon.
Week 3 won’t be the end of the Colts season, but it will set the direction for what's to come in the games remaining.
