With the playoffs fast approaching, the Hoosier Network presents a somewhat, but not very, comprehensive preview and predictions of each of the first-round matchups. View the Western Conference preview here.
Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs. Miami Heat (8)
An understated theme of this season has been the importance of bench depth. As the league continues to progress in terms of skill and talent, having a collection of stars and a supporting cast of middling players is no longer enough (the Phoenix Suns can attest).
The top teams all have quality players to bring off of the bench and the Cavaliers might as well be the standard bearer. Ty Jerome and De’Andre Hunter have inadvertently sabotaged their Sixth Man of the Year campaigns because both are playing so well.
Their plug and play ability means that there is zero drop-off when Cleveland takes out its first batch of starters. It also gives the Cavaliers a variety of lineups and looks to throw at any opposing team they will face. They have an ability to neutralize any team they come up against.
The Heat are the opposite. Not only do they not have good players to come off their bench, but their starters leave a lot to be desired. If this team were in the West they would be competing for Cooper Flagg, not a playoff series.
I know I’m not supposed to bet against “Heat Culture” but how can I not when Alec Burks is their starting shooting guard? This team lacks arguably the most important part of any good team: talent.
They’re surviving off Tyler Herro heroics and luck. Erik Spoelstra may well be the best coach in the NBA but he’s fighting an unwinnable war, the Cavaliers are leagues better than Miami.
I am racking my brain trying to think of a scenario where Miami wins this series and I cannot come up with one that doesn’t involve major injuries to the Cavaliers or divine intervention. Even when the Heat stunned the Bucks two years ago they needed luck in the form of an injury to Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jimmy Butler ascending to a higher plane of existence.
Cleveland has much bigger aspirations than just winning a single round, this team is gunning for it all. This has sweep written all over it.
Prediction: Cleveland in four
Boston Celtics (2) vs. Orlando Magic (7)
The Magic will be lucky if this series goes to five games. I struggle to think of a worse matchup for Orlando whose fatal flaw is that they have no idea how to put the ball in the basket.
The numbers are embarrassing. Offensively, Orlando is in the same company as teams in the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes—teams that are trying to lose.
Frankly, the Magic probably don’t even deserve to be in the playoffs. Jalen Suggs has been out since January and Moritz Wagner hasn’t seen action since December. Those two represent Orlando’s third and fourth leading scorers, respectively. Yet, the East is weak outside of the top six seeds, which allowed for the Magic to sneak their way into the playoffs.
As much as I love Suggs and his animalistic defensive intensity, would he even be the sixth best player on the Celtics? The talent gap between these two teams is massive. As good as Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are (since the All-Star Break, Banchero is averaging nearly 30 points per game) they are the entire Magic offense.
The Celtics have plenty of wings that can stifle Banchero and Wagner, which will place more of a burden on the rest of the Magic’s roster. I have minimal faith in Cole Anthony or Anthony Black to step up in any meaningful way.
Orlando’s one redeeming quality is their defensive prowess, but I doubt that will matter very much in this series. Again, Boston is just too good. Their wings and guards are good enough to beat Orlando’s players in one-on-one situations.
I realize that I have not spent much time talking about Boston, and that is because they are a known quantity, we know who the Celtics are. They will attack the paint and shoot a lot of threes while not turning the ball over and playing great defense. They won the Finals last year and I see no reason as to why they won’t be in the mix this time around too.
Orlando’s only hope is that their shots miraculously start falling and Boston implodes offensively. I don’t see this happening.
Prediction: Celtics in five
New York Knicks (3) vs. Detroit Pistons (6)
What I would give to see Donte DiVincenzo back on the Knicks for this series. I expect no less than three games in this series to involve some sort of brawl. Isaiah “Beef Stew” Stewart will likely start a fight at Madison Square Garden and will be showered by thousands of fans with boos.
This is the matchup in the East that I am most looking forward to watching. Cade Cunningham and his band of merry men like to play basketball a certain way: physically. The Pistons have the third most fouls in the league and since the All-Star Break they lead the league. Stewart and Ron Holland are enforcers who have no reservations about getting into it with the other team. New York on the other hand, commits some of the fewest fouls in the league.
I’m curious to see if the physicality wears on the Knicks who broke down in the playoffs a year ago. They’ve enjoyed mostly good health this year despite the starters logging heavy minutes (the Tom Thibodeau special).
Perhaps part of the reason New York relies so heavily on these minutes from their starters is because of their short bench. Outside of Miles McBride and Mitchell Robinson (who doesn’t seem to be totally healthy yet) I fail to see many players who would be key contributors for New York in this series.
The Knick’s starting lineup is great. It has every piece you would want in a title contender, but the lack of depth in a series against a Piston team that has the pieces to nine different guys 20-plus minutes a game represents a concern.
Dennis Schroder was such a good under-the-radar pickup for Detroit. An older, ‘been around the block’ guard that infuses experience to a younger roster, Schroder hasn’t shot the ball very well as a Piston but I like what he brings to the table regardless.
However, I cannot shake the feeling that Detroit is still a year away. After they lost Jaden Ivey to that gruesome leg injury I thought that would be the end to their feel-good season but instead they stayed afloat throughout the year.
If Detroit were playing the Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals after two rounds of basketball, I would give the edge to the Pistons but New York will be semi-rested and their talent will prove to be too much for the upstarts from the Motor City.
Prediction: Knicks in six
Indiana Pacers (4) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (5)
A rematch of last year’s No. 6 and No. 3 seeds, the Pacers and Bucks have no shortage of recent history, from the entire Bucks team holding an irate Giannis Antetokounmpo back to Tyrese Haliburton beating the buzzer while getting fouled to rip the souls out of the Bucks. Last year, a depleted Milwaukee team pushed Indiana to six games and I would expect this year to be no different.
As redundant as it may seem, the series comes down to two things: can Antetokounmpo drag a mediocre Bucks roster and can Haliburton show some semblance of consistency?
Starting with Antetokounmpo: outside of him, Damian Lillard (whose health is largely still a question mark), Brook Lopez and Kyle Kuzma, Milwaukee has very little playoff pedigree. There are some experienced players, yes, but none capable of filling the void that Lillard has left in his wake. The Bucks just don’t have many quality NBA players whereas the Pacers have a wild surplus.
The burden will almost certainly fall on Antetokounmpo to make something out of nothing, and he seems to be quite capable of doing that against the Pacers, who (like most teams) don’t have someone who can match Antetokounmpo’s physical presence. Antetokounmpo has routinely torched Indiana, scoring more than 30 points three out of the four meetings this season.
As for the Pacers, steady scoring outputs from Haliburton will be the key. In games this season when Haliburton scores 20 or more points, Indiana is 25-3. I would be optimistic that the Pacers are getting a more aggressive, shot-hunting Haliburton considering his post-All Star Game numbers.
He is scoring more than 20 points per game, shooting about 44% from 3 on a high volume, dishing out 11 assists per contest and his turnovers are low, sitting at just 1.2 a game. The best version of Haliburton is the one that cuts into the defense, getting to the paint, then spraying the ball to cutters and shooters.
If Haliburton is not a threat to score it takes the teeth out of the Pacers’ offense. While I'm not sure if Milwaukee has good enough defenders to take Haliburton out of the game, at times, Haliburton is his own worst enemy.
Ultimately, Indiana’s pure talent will be too much for the Bucks to overcome and the Pacers will take the series, albeit in six games because of a strong performance from Antetokounmpo.
Prediction: Pacers in six
