With the playoffs fast approaching, the Hoosier Network presents a somewhat, but not very, comprehensive preview and predictions of each of the first-round matchups. View the Eastern Conference preview here.
Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (8)
The Thunder are my pick to win the West. It’s not particularly original, I know, but it’s the right pick. They are loaded, and have a million ways to beat you. They suffer from an embarrassment of riches that would make some of the greatest teams ever jealous. Virtually every statistic points to the Thunder winning the whole thing.
While Oklahoma City has been cruising throughout the season, Memphis has been spontaneously combusting. There’s nothing like firing the winningest coach in your franchise’s history weeks before the playoffs start to galvanize the team.
I understand that the Grizzlies' front office had their reasons, but if they want to win any games in the playoffs I would not have made this move. Part of the reason was probably because Memphis cannot seem to beat teams above .500, an important indicator of playoff potential.
Nonetheless, the Grizzlies still made it to the playoffs, an accomplishment in of itself considering how competitive the West was. They have pieces I like: Jaylen Wells was a great story until his injury, Zach Edey’s continued success at the NBA level has been fun to see, and Ja Morant is breathtaking to watch, per usual.
But they’re running into the buzzsaw that is the Thunder. Oklahoma City has questions, not weaknesses. Questions like: can Jalen Williams carry them if Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is having an off game?
In the previous playoffs, Williams played well, yet he never scored more than 24 points in a game. While it may not be a concern in this series, moving forward, the Thunder will need Williams to play up to his potential. Maybe Chet Holmgren can fill that void too, could this be the playoffs where he levels up?
It’s plausible to see Gilgeous-Alexander struggling at times against some of the size and length that the Grizzlies have. Perhaps Jaren Jackson Jr. and Edey turn the restricted area into a warzone and the rest of the Grizzlies make life miserable on the perimeter.
However, Oklahoma City dominated the season series and they’re just the better team. Sometimes, it’s that simple.
Prediction: Oklahoma City in four
Houston Rockets (2) vs. Golden State Warriors (7)
A No. 7 seed has only been favored over a No. 2 seed twice since 1998, the Warriors will make it three times. Is this perceived advantage given to them perhaps due to the pedigree of their stars? Yes, but it’s warranted.
Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green have combined to play 423 playoff games — the entire Houston roster has played 272. Houston is young, athletic and unafraid, but their most important players have zero exposure to playoff pressures.
This series will be close. Steve Kerr and Ime Udoka will be white-knuckling throughout the entire series. Both teams are among the league leaders in clutch games played (games that are within five points or less under five minutes to go). They live for clutch games.
If the series will regularly be decided by a handful of points, logic would dictate siding with Golden State. If there are 15 seconds left on the game clock in a single possession game, Curry and Butler are two of the best options in the entire league.
It's common sense that Kerr would have a bevy of actions at his disposal for situations just like this from Butler isos to Curry screaming around an off-ball screen. Even if these sets break down (as they tend to do) again, I have more faith in Curry than just about anyone in the NBA to freestyle and get a clean look.
Conversely, I have no idea who Houston is giving the ball in this same scenario. In theory, Jalen Green fits the mold of a player who would shine in the clutch, but I’m not sure I want the ball in his hands with the game on the line. Alperen Şengün is a very good player but I have doubts over his lack of playoff experience.
The statistics that the NBA provides regarding “clutch stats” are by no means foolproof (the New Orleans Pelicans have a positive net rating in the clutch, yet they are 14-20 in such games). Using the knowledge that we have, it would make sense that Golden State would grade out as a better clutch team than Houston, yet Houston actually has a higher net rating and a better winning percentage in clutch games.
Despite these numbers backing up Houston, I still lean towards the Warriors. Houston is too young and green, they’re far ahead of schedule and there’s no shame in losing a close series to a team led by Curry.
Prediction: Golden State in seven
Los Angeles Lakers (3) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (6)
Prior to Luka Dončić being shipped out to the Lakers, I seriously doubted Los Angeles’s playoff prospects, but now, they are the most likely team to make it to the finals from the West (outside of the Thunder). Having two game-altering players often does that to a team.
I don’t find it particularly surprising that Dončić and LeBron James have paired well together, their skillsets match fairly well and Doncic provides a luxury for James, whose offensive burden is now far lighter with Doncic present.
However, the departure of Anthony Davis and the voiding of the Mark Williams trade leaves the Lakers vulnerable in the middle. Jaxson Hayes is not good enough to be the starting center on a No. 3 seed, and it forces JJ Reddick to use a much smaller lineup.
For Minnesota this could be a blessing and a curse. Rudy Gobert will give them the size advantage in the paint when the Lakers go small and is also more skilled than Jaxson Hayes. Yet, Gobert is notorious for his defensive troubles in the playoffs, especially against smaller lineups.
I could see the Lakers spacing the floor, allowing for Dončić, James and Austin Reaves (who’s been on a tear since the All Star Break) to dissect the Minnesota defense. Gobert would be stuck in no-man's-land if a switch were to happen (Gobert likely still has some scar tissue from last playoffs too) almost certainly result in an easy bucket for Los Angeles.
I would expect to see much bigger minutes from Naz Reid due to his mobility, but across the board, the matchups for Minnesota aren’t pretty. Anthony Edwards will be guarded by someone who will lack the defensive chops needed to stop a player of his caliber which is a plus. Sure, they have wings and guards that could defend the Lakers trio of stars, but one of them is bound to find a favorable matchup each possession.
I just have too many questions about Minnesota in this series. Like, what will happen with Julius Randle? His past playoff performances are about as checkered as they come and I seriously doubt that he will be able to be a plus-defender throughout the series.
The Lakers will have three of the best four players in the series. Dončić, James, and Reaves are combining for almost 73 points a game. It doesn’t matter who’s lining up at the five for Los Angeles as long as those three perform at a high level.
Prediction: Lakers in six
Denver Nuggets (4) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (5)
Is there any coach that has been more looked over for Coach of the Year than Ty Lue? The Clippers have shattered any expectations I had for them. I expected a step back, losing Paul George, less than half a season from Kawhi Leonard, and an aging James Harden did not scream NBA Finals sleeper.
Yet, Lue has again taken the Clippers to the playoffs, and I love this team. They are one of those ‘greater than the sum of their parts’ teams that just win basketball games. Los Angeles is 13-2 in their last 15 games and led the league in net rating during that same span.
In many ways, Denver is the other side of the coin. They fired their coach and general manager and have more or less limped their way to the No. 4 seed.
Nikola Jokić is just about all Denver has going for them, and sometimes, that’s enough to win a series. Think LeBron James in the 2018 playoffs, willing the Cleveland Cavaliers to the Finals. Granted the East was weak, but these Nuggets are far better than that Cavalier team.
The Nuggets are a battle tested, hardened team with a starting five that is made for the playoffs. Their issue is that their bench unit leaves much to be desired and as I previously stated, the organization is a mess.
The Clippers feature plenty of players with postseason experience but I have doubts. Harden has a lengthy track record of being unreliable come playoff time and there will always be concerns about Leonard’s health.
So much of this series will revolve around Ivica Zubac (something I never thought I would ever say). Zubac has quietly been doing a Moses Malone impression, posting some absurd rebounding stat lines rather routinely. Zubac is no defensive slouch either, as he ranks second in defensive win shares.
Whether or not Zubac can slow down Jokic in the slightest is still up in the air. Jokic has played well against the Clippers this season, with his best game being a 41-point explosion back in October. But Los Angeles was without Leonard for that game and had not yet established their cagey defensive identity.
Overall, the Clippers have the better roster and will take this series. As much as I fear picking against Jokić (and in favor of Harden), Los Angeles is peaking at the right time and Denver is a sinking ship.
Prediction: Clippers in seven
