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(02/11/22 4:01pm)
After back-to-back losses (and the suspension of five rotational players), the Indiana men’s basketball team finds itself in a position they weren’t in seven days ago: Questioning their tournament standing. And now, the Hoosiers have three straight games against teams ranked in the AP Top 25.
IU will travel to East Lansing to face Michigan State on Saturday. Here are the strengths and flaws of Tom Izzo’s Spartans ahead of their bout with the Hoosiers.
FAST AND FURIOUS
The main thing to note about the Spartan’s offense is the pace. Michigan State loves to play quickly on offense, and a lot of it has to do with their bigs. The Spartans use their big men to get out and run in transition quickly.
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As a defense, you have to be ready to run the floor with Michigan State. IU certainly has the capable bigs with Trayce Jackson-Davis and Race Thompson, but it’s a matter of being prepared and conditioned to sprint down the court continually.
When teams do run the floor well with Michigan State, the Spartans are prone to turning the ball over. This is the downside to playing as fast as the Spartans do. Michigan State turns the ball over on 20.4 percent of their possessions, marking the highest turnover rate in the Big Ten.
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If the Hoosiers run the floor defensively like they’re capable of, they can force the Spartans into a lot of turnovers. This will take possessions away from Michigan State and it could create fastbreak opportunities for IU.
What stands out about Michigan State’s half-court offense is the ball movement. 61.9 percent of the Spartans’ baskets are assisted. That percentage ranks in the top-20 in the nation and second in the Big Ten behind Rutgers. There’s no star on this offense, but they spread the ball around and make sure everyone on the court is a scoring threat.
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It will be crucial for Indiana to make the proper rotations against Michigan State on Saturday. It will be even more important for Indiana to contain the ball so that they don’t end up behind the play and scrambling against Michigan State’s ball and player movement.
Michigan’s State leading scorer Gabe Brown is often a beneficiary of this ball movement. The 6-foot-8 senior is not necessarily ball-dominant and doesn’t create for himself, but he is very efficient with his touches.
Brown is averaging just 12.8 points per game in a balanced Spartan scoring attack, and 56.8 percent of his field goal attempts are 3s. Brown does a lot of his work from the corners, and more specifically the left corner.
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Once again, Brown is not someone who will put the ball on the ground much and initiate the Spartans’ offense. But as a 38.5 percent (41.7 percent in Big Ten play) 3-point shooter, he must be accounted for at all times on the floor. Brown can often make a living by lurking and just slightly moving to the blind spot of a ball-watching defender. Whichever Hoosier draws the Gabe Brown assignment must be alert to take away open looks.
HARD IN THE PAINT
Michigan State is also coming off back-to-back losses. In those losses, the Spartans’ defense has struggled. Despite having one of the best 3-point defenses in the country, Michigan State has had struggles defending inside the arc.
Watch how ruthlessly Rutgers backed Michigan State down at multiple positions last Saturday:
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Michigan State’s last three opponents have all shot above 50 percent on 2-pointers. The Spartans are struggling to stop teams in the paint and it’s led to them barely beating Maryland and falling to Rutgers and Wisconsin.
Michigan State’s inability to stop the post could bode well for Jackson-Davis, who is 7 of 22 from the field during IU’s two-game losing skid. Don’t be surprised to see Mike Woodson and the Hoosiers test Michigan State’s defense with a bevy of post ups for Race Thompson and Jordan Geronimo as well.
While Michigan State plays with a high tempo on offense, their defense is set up to force opposing offenses into long possessions. Michigan State’s average defensive possession takes 18.3 seconds.
Tom Izzo and the Spartans play a conservative man-to-man defense. Michigan State’s defense is built to drag possessions out instead of having offenses make quick reads that could lead to baskets.
Possessions like this one happen often against Michigan State:
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As you can see, there’s not a lot of tight pressure, on or off-ball, on Northwestern players. Instead, Michigan State’s defenders just do their best to stay in front of the basketball and force the Wildcats into a long possession.
The best way for Indiana to attack Michigan State will be by finding ways to get downhill. Xavier Johnson and Trey Galloway are IU’s best two rim pressure ball handlers, so expect to see those two being aggressive in the first half on Saturday. IU’s offensive performance may just come down to Jackson-Davis’ ability to break his current slump.
FINAL THOUGHTS AND KEYS
The Indiana defense has struggled to guard 3s in recent weeks. While Michigan State doesn’t fire up a lot of 3s, they hit an impressive 38.8 percent of their shots from downtown. Limiting the makes (and attempts) of Gabe Brown and others will be very important for IU in this matchup.
IU has to be ready to run with the Spartans when necessary. Marcus Bingham, Joey Hauser and Julius Marble can all get up the court quickly for early post seals and easy dunks. The Hoosiers need to ensure that those easy shots in transition don’t happen on Saturday.
The return of five previously-suspended Indiana players should provide a boost to the squad’s offense. But the Hoosiers have now gone three consecutive games scoring under a point per possession, so it will take more than just getting those players back.
As the best player on this team, now feels like the time for Trayce Jackson-Davis to get back into rhythm and lift this program from the hectic past seven days. Michigan State’s defense is susceptible to post players like Jackson-Davis. If he can take advantage of that, then Indiana should be set up nicely at the Breslin Center.
Both teams come into Saturday struggling. A three-game losing streak on either side would spell trouble. I expect two desperate teams to come in and fight for every possession. If Indiana can nail the little things, this game will likely come down to the wire.
(01/26/22 2:14am)
After taking their first home defeat in an 80-62 loss against Michigan on Sunday, the Indiana men’s basketball team is in a must-win situation to close out its three-game homestand. IU will face Penn State, a team they’ve already fallen to, on Wednesday. Here’s what went wrong against the Nittany Lions on Jan. 2, and here’s how the Hoosiers can fix it.
PUSH THE PACE
My biggest gripe with Indiana in its 61-58 loss at Penn State was how slow the game was. Penn State is a deliberately slow team. The Nittany Lions play at the slowest pace in the Big Ten, with an adjusted tempo of 62.3 possessions.
In the first matchup, there were 59 total possessions per team. That’s the lowest amount of possessions that IU has had all season. This slower pace plays in Penn State’s favor because Penn State is the less talented team. Thus, the lower amount of possessions means the gap in overall skill is reduced.
When the game is played that slowly, IU’s margin of error becomes much smaller. The Hoosiers need to speed it up to separate themselves on Wednesday.
TIME TO SWITCH IT UP?
The other large issue that occurred in the earlier game was the ball screen defense. Mike Woodson acknowledged this following the Penn State game, saying, “We just weren’t good in our pick and roll coverage. It was terrible.”
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The pick-and-roll defense has continued to be an issue for the Hoosiers after that game. Michigan runs a lot of the same spread ball screen concepts as Penn State, and the Wolverines also ate IU alive with those schemes.
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The baskets that Penn State and Michigan scored on the Hoosiers look eerily similar. IU has flat-out done a poor job containing this action this month.
Concerns with defending ball screens coincided with giving up good 3-point attempts. Sound familiar? That’s exactly what happened to Indiana against Michigan on Sunday. The inability to contain the initial screen action has left IU out of rotation.
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Another reason the Hoosiers allowed Penn State to knock down 11 3s is that they helped too aggressively. Helping one pass away appears to be a part of Indiana’s defensive scheme, but I’m not sure it should be. Watch these two possessions, as Rob Phinisee has the drive restrained yet Jordan Geronimo helps at the foul line, leading to open 3s.
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Indiana’s 3-point defense will be vital for its success on Wednesday. Penn State has the highest 3-point attempt rate in the Big Ten, as 43.5 percent of Penn State's field goal attempts come from beyond the arc.
When the Nittany Lions shoot over 35 percent on 3s, they are 5-1 this year. When they shoot over 33 percent, they are 8-1. Penn State only has eight wins on the season, meaning most of its games are solely reliant on how well the team shoots from outside. IU needs to make sure that Penn State doesn’t go 11-for-22 on 3s again.
My suggestion to fix Indiana’s issues of ball screen and 3-point defense is to switch more often. At the beginning of the season, it appeared IU wanted to switch rather frequently. IU would switch the point guard through power forward positions with Trayce Jackson-Davis and Michael Durr continuing to hedge.
Watch this possession in IU’s season opener against Eastern Michigan and pay attention to the number of switches that occur both on and off-ball.
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In 11 seconds of action, I count at least three (maybe four) switches. Switching like this makes it harder for offenses to easily pull up or drive right to the basket. The downside of switching is the possibility of the opposing offenses hunting mismatches.
I believe both Race Thompson and Jordan Geronimo are versatile enough to make the switching scheme pay off. As long as Jackson-Davis and Durr can avoid being the players that have to defend on the perimeter, switching may be wiser than the current attempts of hedging and recovering.
BALL REVERSALS
Where Indiana occasionally struggled against Penn State offensively is moving the ball. In particular, the Hoosiers had a hard time swinging the ball around when the Nittany Lions “iced” screens. Penn State ices screens to restrict offenses from driving down the middle of the lane.
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The way to beat the ice is to quickly reverse the ball to the other side of the floor without trying to dribble through the strong denial. IU struggled to create legitimate ball reversals at times against Penn State.
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Indiana did not provide a good response to Penn State’s defense in the first matchup. Penn State has consistently gone with ice coverage against ball screens, and will continue to do so on Wednesday. The Hoosiers must reverse the ball with a purpose to keep the Nittany Lions on their toes.
Other than that, Indiana just has to shoot the ball better on Wednesday. Jackson-Davis missed a few bunnies at the rim in the earlier matchup. The team shot 4-for-17 as a team in the Jan. 2 loss. If Jackson-Davis hits two more layups and IU knocks down a couple more 3s, then the Hoosiers probably win that game.
Playing at Assembly Hall should help Indiana put together a more efficient effort on open looks. But Indiana will need to move the ball more to create more of those looks.
FINAL THOUGHTS AND KEYS
Hoosier fans are longing for a good start to a game. They usually recover from the slow starts, but building a decent lead over Penn State early on would be preferred. Getting an early lead and playing with place could go hand in hand.
Many will be looking to see if IU can make a stand early against pick and rolls. Will it be more of the same, or will the Hoosiers tighten up the defense? Overall, I think the defense will come down to limiting Penn State’s 3-point opportunities.
And on offense, just hitting the good looks will go a long way. Indiana’s guards should be more equipped to handle ice coverage now that they’ve faced it multiple times throughout the year. As long as they don’t let the defense completely take them out of their sets, the Hoosiers should be fine.
The goal for this homestand was for Indiana to come out 2-1. After upsetting Purdue, the Hoosiers had a letdown game against Michigan. IU has to avoid a resume-altering loss against Penn State.
(01/20/22 2:02pm)
The Indiana men’s basketball team got their first road win of the season in a 78-71 defeat of Nebraska on Monday. After getting that monkey off their back, the Hoosiers will look to remove another monkey on Thursday: The Purdue Boilermakers.
Purdue has won nine straight games over Indiana, and this may be the best team the Boilermakers have ever had. Here’s what IU will be challenged with on Thursday night.
THE OFFENSE AND ITS COUNTERS
When discussing Purdue’s offense, I think it’s best to start with their most efficient player. That would be the 7-foot-4 sophomore Zach Edey. Edey is averaging 15.6 points per game and shooting 70.7 percent on field goals.
Edey’s main source of production is obviously post ups. Purdue creates these post ups by overloading one side of the court and having Edey pin his defender deep inside the paint.
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This overload allows Edey to post up without help being available from the weak side. Notice how there is usually no defender on the other side of the court and if there is, it’s a guard who has very little chance of affecting Edey’s shot. Also, watch the post-to-post cross screens that the Boilermakers sometimes use to trigger post ups (remember those screens for later on).
For the last four or five years, zoom action has been a staple of Purdue head coach Matt Painter’s offenses. Zoom action is when a big man has the ball at the wing or elbow, another player is to his side setting a pindown and a ball-handling guard is running off the screen to receive a dribble handoff from the big man.
Typically, the big man rolls, the screener pops and the guard has the option to drive, pass or shoot right away. Painter began frequently running this for Carsen Edwards and Ryan Cline, and he hasn’t looked back since.
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This is a great set to run for Purdue’s leading scorer Jaden Ivey (16.4 points per game). His speed is hard to chase off screens. It is also a wonderful action for Purdue guard Sasha Stefanovic, who is a 41.7 percent 3-point shooter on 6.4 attempts per game.
Speaking of Ivey, the sophomore from South Bend has made himself a complete basketball player. Ivey’s mix of speed and finishing make him extremely hard to stop. Add that to the fact that his 3-point shooting has jolted to a 43 percent clip and you have one of the best players in college basketball.
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Ivey’s job of getting to the rim is made that much easier by the fact that rim protectors are usually too occupied with Edey and Trevion Williams to give a genuine contest to Ivey’s finishes.
Oh yeah, did I mention Trevion Williams? Williams was Second Team All-Big Ten last season and has now become Purdue’s sixth man due to Edey’s improvement (Williams plays more than Edey). While Williams' scoring production has taken a slight decrease, his effective field goal percentage has soared from 52.5 percent to 58.8 percent.
Williams is used in a much different capacity than Edey is. Watch how Williams’ post ups occur in more spread alignments than Edey’s.
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Purdue is also much more comfortable with Williams handling the basketball. This is because Williams has better ball-handling and passing skills than Edey does.
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If Edey catches the ball above the foul line, it’s only to initiate zoom action. Williams can be trusted to touch the ball from anywhere on the court. The first play in that video is a zoom set, but Williams is wise enough to spot the defense overplaying it and throw the backdoor pass.
What makes the Boilermakers so dangerous, outside of individual players, is the counters they have to many of their sets. Remember those cross screens I mentioned on the Edey overload play? They also use those to set up alley-oops when defenses try to jump the passing lanes.
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Purdue’s zoom plays are usually set up by a pindown being set to get Edey and Williams the ball. But when a defender reads the action early and tries to beat the big man to the spot, here comes a backdoor cut and a lob.
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As Indiana fans know all too well, Purdue’s offense is consistently one of the best and most complex in the country (there’s still a lot I didn’t cover). The Boilermakers now have the type of talent and experience that puts it all together. They will be a tough cover for Indiana on Thursday night.
SCRAMBLE DRILL
Purdue’s defense has been inconsistent, but they are coming off a 96-88 double overtime win over Illinois and the Illini only scored 1.04 points per possession (the national average is 1.01). After that performance against Illinois’ electric offense in Champagne, Purdue has to feel good about their chances against IU’s offense.
One thing to watch is how the Boilermakers decide to guard ball screens. For most of the season, Purdue has been willing to switch ball screens at the one through four positions. When Edey is the center, he is asked to play drop coverage, where he just stays between the ball handler and the basket until the on-ball defender can get back in front.
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When Williams is the center, he typically is tasked with hedging the screen and briefly cutting off any driving angle for the ball handler. Sometimes, Williams straight-up blitzes the ball screen action, effectively double teaming the ball handler.
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Against Illinois, the Boilermakers decided to “ice” most ball screens rather than dropping or hedging. This forced Illinois to drive baseline and limited them from utilizing the middle of the court.
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It’s hard to tell whether Purdue has decided to completely change their ball screen coverage, or if they felt they needed to ice screens to limit Illinois’ guards from driving straight down the middle. In Purdue’s other games ice coverage was more of a wrinkle in their defense than their base coverage.
I believe that Indiana’s best shot at attacking drops and hedges is to drag the screen out to the point where Purdue’s centers are forced to switch onto IU’s ball handlers. When the switch happens, the Boilermakers will send aggressive help and the Hoosiers will have the opportunity to swing the ball around and find the open man.
While this following possession came against IU, it is a good example of how to attack these coverages.
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Michael Durr is trying to hedge and recover against Iowa’s Jordan Bohannon. Bohannon drags the screen to the other end of the floor, forcing Durr to switch on Bohannon and Rob Phinisee to switch on Iowa’s big man. Bohannon then uses his agility to get right past Durr and score.
If Purdue is icing screens on Thursday, Indiana will need to stress the importance of ball reversals. Purdue’s defense has been inconsistent because they tend to fall asleep off-ball and can be caught on their toes in scramble drills.
Watch how Purdue blitzes the screen and the weak-side defense isn’t ready to combat that:
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These ball reversals will be vital for Indiana regardless of how Purdue guards ball screens. IU’s best half-court possessions come when they make quick and accurate passes around the perimeter.
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Purdue has faced two elite big men this year: North Carolina’s Armando Bacot and Illinois’ Kofi Cockburn. Those two combined for 12 points on 4-for-15 shooting against the Boilermakers. Trayce Jackson-Davis will have to be able to navigate a defense that guards well against post ups.
Even with the size that Edey and Williams provide, Purdue still opted to double Bacot and Cockburn as much as they could.
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There’s a good chance that Jackson-Davis will have to be the best player on the floor for IU to win on Thursday. Purdue’s great post defense has come on limited sample size. Bacot and Cockburn both battled foul trouble against the Boilermakers. Jackson-Davis and Race Thompson will both have to stay clear of poor fouls and being too aggressive.
That said, Indiana can not abandon the low-post game at any point. But being able to score with variety will make way for more post buckets down the stretch. It may ultimately just come down to how many tough shots Jackson-Davis can convert.
FINAL THOUGHTS AND KEYS
There is no simple answer regarding how Indiana should guard Purdue’s offense. The most important key for the defense is to not overplay Purdue’s actions. Unless the ball is in the air, don’t try to read a play before it happens. Eye discipline is a big deal against the Boilermakers.
When Edey’s in the post, I’d advise sending hard and timely doubles. IU has two great defensive bigs, but Edey is 7 inches taller than Jackson-Davis and 8 inches taller than Thompson. The Hoosiers could maybe try defending Edey one-on-one when the 7-footer Michael Durr is in the lineup, but I still wouldn’t lean on it.
When Williams is in the post, I think Thompson and Jackson-Davis can both hold their own one-on-one. With Williams’ vision, it’s probably not wise to double him. Depending on how Purdue is spaced, Indiana should be ready to send a second man to contest Williams as he’s going up for shots. Other than that, I’d say let IU’s two bigs handle Williams by themselves.
IU has to rebound to close out defensive possessions. Purdue’s offense is too good to surrender second chances to. Purdue currently has a 37.8 offensive rebound percentage, which is top ten in the country. Indiana is typically one of the better defensive rebounding teams in the country, but the Hoosiers allowed a concerning 16 offensive rebounds to Iowa last week. All five of IU’s defensive players need to play a part in securing rebounds on Thursday.
Ball movement and ball reversals will be the most vital part of Indiana’s offense on Thursday. If IU can move the ball quickly and accurately, they should have a good chance at the upset. If not, chalk up ten in a row for Purdue over IU.
I also think IU has to win the 3-point differential. Whether that means defending the perimeter extremely well or catching fire from beyond the arc, the Hoosiers’ best chance to win will be by outshooting Purdue from deep. Purdue is a top-five 3-point shooting team in the country at 40.3 percent, but they’re only shooting 35.3 percent on 3s in away games. Sturdy defense combined with bad luck could lead to a poor shooting night for Purdue.
This is a game that Indiana should be competitive in. Purdue is the better team, but IU’s defense combined with the Assembly Hall could make the Boilermakers uncomfortable. If the Hoosiers do what they need to do and a few bounces go their way, they could pull off the upset and get their biggest win of the season.
(01/12/22 10:52pm)
The Indiana men’s basketball team is coming off two exciting home wins against Ohio State and Minnesota. But on Thursday, they’ll return to a true road environment, where they are yet to win this season (0-3).
Here is what Mike Woodson and the Hoosiers need to prepare for against the Iowa Hawkeyes.
RUN & GUN
The top point of emphasis for the Hawkeyes offenses is running the floor and playing fast. Iowa pushes the pace regardless of if its defense is coming off of a rebound, made shot or turnover.
These are Iowa’s first two possessions against Wisconsin, where the Hawkeyes scored in under five seconds:
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Iowa’s average offensive possession takes 14.9 seconds, and that number is equal for both non-conference and Big Ten games. From Indiana’s side, I’m not sure the solution is trying to slow Iowa down, as the Hoosiers also play their best offense when tempo’s involved. But IU certainly has to be alert and ready to run back on defense at all times.
Another Big Ten opponent, another potential All-American to go against. That’s just how it works this year in the conference, and Keegan Murray drives the bus for Iowa.
Murray has gone from being Luka Garza’s backup to being one of the best players in college basketball. Murray’s prime source of production in half-court offense is in the post-up and face-up game.
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Murray’s mix of strength, athleticism, and shotmaking is hard to come by. Woodson has already indicated that he plans to use Race Thompson as the primary defender against Murray.
The Hoosiers should really consider playing Jordan Geronimo over 15 minutes on Thursday, even though he’s only done it once since the start of December. Geronimo’s ability to take away space with his length could be a nice counter to Murray’s size. Geronimo would probably need some help in the low post but I think he could get the job done.
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Murray’s worst game of the season (and Iowa’s worst offensive game overall) came against Iowa State. Iowa State was unafraid to switch when Murray was the screener. When Murray got the ball, the entire defense loaded up to negate any driving angles for Murray. This forced Murray to either make contested shots or become a facilitator (which is the weakest part of his offensive arsenal).
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Murray did not score in the first half against the Cyclones and finished the game with just nine points on 4-for-17 shooting.
Iowa only shoots 35.5 percent on 3s and is at just 33.7 percent in four Big Ten games. Teams can force the ball out of Murray’s hand and make Iowa settle for 3s. As long as Indiana locates Jordan Bohannon (who has made the most 3s in Big Ten history), IU can probably get away with helping off of perimeter players to wall up Murray.
The other part of Iowa’s offense that makes the Hawkeyes so hard to guard is the ball handling. Seemingly every Iowa player can put the ball on the floor and get to the basket.
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Not only do the Hawkeyes have a surplus of ball handlers, but those ball handlers are also careful with the ball. Iowa leads the country with a 12.1 percent turnover rate. Iowa has turned it over even less in conference play (9.8 percent).
IU will have to be able to contain the drive against Iowa, and the backline should be ready at all times to clean up any mistakes made by wing defenders.
A BEATABLE DEFENSE
For the third year in a row, Iowa’s defense appears to be hindering a top-five offense. In six games against teams in basketball analyst Bart Torvik's top 100 teams, Iowa is allowing 1.139 points per possession, which ranks second-last in the Big Ten.
Iowa’s defensive problems start with rebounding. Iowa’s opponents grab offensive rebounds 30.6 percent of the time. That number jolts to an abysmal 40.4 percent in conference play, which is last in the Big Ten. The Hawkeyes lost their top three rebounders from a season ago and they are now experiencing the consequences.
Indiana is not a team that necessarily emphasizes offensive rebounding, but IU absolutely should against Iowa. The likes of Trayce Jackson-Davis, Race Thompson, Geronimo and Michael Durr need to be active on the offensive glass against the Hawkeyes.
Other than rebounding, there’s nothing that Iowa is consistently terrible at defensively. The issue is that there is nothing that Iowa does consistently well either.
Some games this team gets beat by 3s, some games they get killed inside, other games they foul too much. The reason for it changes constantly, but this is an Iowa squad that is yet to show that it can guard a top-100 team.
As for how Iowa defends Jackson-Davis, you can expect double teams to come. Iowa has faced three premier big men: Illinois' Kofi Cockburn, Purdue's Zach Edey and Purdue's Trevion Williams. Everyone has to double Cockburn and Edey, who are both over 7-feet tall and 280 pounds.
But Iowa also decided to send two at Williams, who stands 6-foot-10. It is clear that the Hawkeyes do not trust their post defense to go one-on-one against top players.
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As per usual, IU will need to make smart passes out of double teams and swing the ball around to find the open man. If the Hoosiers do this effectively, there’s a good chance that Iowa’s defense breaks down once again.
FINAL THOUGHTS AND KEYS
To have success against Iowa, Indiana will need to play team defense and protect the paint. The Hawkeyes want to get the likes of Keegan Murray, Patrick McCaffery and Kris Murray going towards the rim.
The Hoosiers also need to emphasize running back in transition. Jackson-Davis and Thompson are two of the fastest big men in the conference and they will need to put that to use against Iowa. IU cannot get caught sleeping in transition against the Hawkeyes.
Offensively, Indiana will have to avoid turning the ball over. Due to how seldom Iowa turns it over, it will be important for the Hoosiers to not lose the turnover battle by a large margin. IU’s turnover rate has stayed below 15 percent in the past three games after being over 20 percent to begin the season. If IU can keep that trend going, the team should be in good shape.
This is a very winnable game for IU. Iowa has not shown the ability to guard inside, which bodes well for the Hoosiers. I expect the low post actions to be very efficient against the Hawkeyes.
On the other hand, all three of IU’s losses have been winnable games. All three of the losses have been on the road. We’re at the midway point of the regular season and so far, this looks like an entirely different squad when playing outside of the state of Indiana. The Hoosiers have a chance to fix that against Iowa.
(01/06/22 2:05pm)
The Indiana men’s basketball team is coming off a disappointing 61-58 defeat at Penn State on Sunday. Its next test: A 9-2 Ohio State team riding a 5-game winning streak. Here is what awaits the Hoosiers on Thursday night.
E.J. LIDDELL AND THE SHOOTERS
When discussing Ohio State’s offense, the conversation has to start with E.J. Liddell. Liddell is on a list of early candidates for the Big 10 Player of the Year, as he is averaging 19.6 points per game and 7.3 rebounds per game so far this season.
The main way the Buckeyes use Liddell is in the post. At 240 pounds, Liddell’s large shoulders and strength make him hard to guard on the block. He often creates enough separation to rise for a fadeaway.
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Indiana has both Race Thompson and Trayce Jackson-Davis available to guard Liddell down low. Most teams don’t have two defensive big men of that caliber. Because the Hoosiers have bigs with the potential to guard Liddell one-on-one, it will be interesting to see if IU brings double teams.
Liddell is a poised passer out of double teams. In Ohio State’s 87-79 overtime win over Nebraska on Sunday, Liddell manufactured back-to-back overtime assists to put Ohio State in control.
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Plays like that are Ohio State’s bread and butter. The Buckeyes shoot 39.7 percent on 3-pointers, which is tied for second in the Big Ten. They use their post ups with Liddell and Zed Key and turn them into inside scoring opportunities or 3-point attempts.
Ohio State does an especially good job at pairing a shooting threat on the side of a post player. Watch how the Buckeyes scramble to make sure Jamari Wheeler (43.8 percent on 3s) is on the wing above Zed Key:
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The other part of Liddell’s game that makes him difficult to guard is his role as a screener. Liddell is one of the best screeners in the country and Ohio State takes advantage of that.
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This shows Liddell popping for a jump shot, driving to the basket, rolling to the basket, and flowing into a post up. Liddell’s level of versatility is hard to come by in college basketball. He is shooting 33.3 percent on 3s this season and 50.8 percent in the mid-range area (per basketball statistician Bart Torvik).
What makes Ohio State’s offense special, in general, is the creativity of the ball screens. Chris Holtmann is a believer in the roll/replace and/or Spain pick and roll actions. These actions lift a player from the dunker spot to the perimeter with the goal of minimizing the weak-side defense and creating three different scoring options.
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Penn State, IU’s previous opponent, also ran a few Spain pick and rolls. This particular one did not fare well for the Hoosiers:
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Defending this play requires recognizing it quickly and effective communication of the defensive coverage. IU’s defense has been solid, but the skill and counters of Ohio State’s offense will be the toughest challenge that IU has faced this season.
Where the Ohio State offense can be slowed down is by forcing turnovers. Ohio State has a turnover rate of 20.4 percent in three conference games thus far. That ranks second-last in the conference, with only Rutgers turning the ball over at a higher rate. If the Hoosiers can play tight defense and play the passing lanes, they could hinder this highly efficient Ohio State offense.
THE “NO-MIDDLE” DEFENSE
Ohio State’s defense is the weaker side of the ball for the Buckeyes. The Buckeyes have a serviceable defense but it is not top-10 in the country like their offense. The main issue for Ohio State’s defense is staying in front of athletic ball handlers. Ohio State is susceptible to giving up a lot of blow-by drives.
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It’s clear that Ohio State’s point-of-attack defenders don’t always do a great job containing the drive. The issue for the Hoosiers is that they don’t create that sort of rim pressure outside of Xavier Johnson. Per Bart Torvik, Johnson has 40 “close 2” attempts this season. No other Indiana guard has more than 15.
The main way that Ohio State combats opponents’ drives is by icing screens. By icing a screen, the Buckeyes deny drives down the middle of the court and force ball handlers to drive towards the baseline.
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IU has faced two teams -- Eastern Michigan and Penn State -- that ice screens at a high rate like Ohio State.
Against Eastern Michigan, IU’s guards were patient and made sure the ball got to the weak side effectively. The overload leading to an alley-oop on the second play is one of the better IU plays this season.
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The Hoosiers appeared a bit less comfortable against ice coverage at Penn State. Mixed results ensued.
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IU probably doesn’t have crafty enough ball handlers to snake around screens in ice coverage, but the least they could do is to reverse the ball with purpose and urgency. Sometimes overcoming ice coverage is as simple as tossing the ball to the screener and turning the play into a dribble handoff instead.
Thursday’s game will be the first time Ohio State has faced a dominant big man this season, so it’s hard to know how the Buckeyes will approach guarding Trayce Jackson-Davis. While Key and Liddell are strong enough for the challenge, they might not have the overall quickness and poise to contain Jackson-Davis. The Buckeyes mainly doubled Jackson-Davis in the matchup last February.
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Being doubled should be nothing new for Jackson-Davis, but there is the potential to see him go one-on-one against the Buckeyes. If that’s the case, he must go to work.
FINAL THOUGHTS AND KEYS
To win, Indiana will need to hug the 3-point line defensively. The Hoosiers have a tendency of helping one pass away against great shooters, and that ends up hurting them. Ohio State is too dangerous from beyond the arc. IU cannot make inopportune gambles in this game.
IU will also need to stay in front of Liddell and force him into highly contested shots. This is a challenge that Thompson wasn’t quite ready for last year, but the fifth-year senior is having his best season on both sides of the ball this year. A steady mix of Thompson, Jackson-Davis, and Jordan Geronimo should at least make things difficult for Liddell.
On offense, Indiana has to have quick ball reversals and create looks for its two shooters, Parker Stewart and Miller Kopp. There was no synergy and no clear objective for the Hoosiers offensively against Penn State, and that has to change. The Hoosiers must put their most efficient players in spots where they can succeed.
Jackson-Davis also has to be great, not just good, against these top-tier squads. Jackson-Davis was just 5-for-12 at the rim against Penn State, as he misfired a few shots that he usually makes. This offense just isn’t gifted enough to overcome Jackson-Davis having off nights. He has to play like an All-American.
This is the biggest (and possibly most important) test that Indiana has faced all season. The Hoosiers are now 0-3 on the road after suffering a loss to a Penn State team that they should have beaten. If this team is going to struggle in road environments, they have to get the job done in these monumental home games.