The Indianapolis Colts are one of the hottest teams to start the 2025 NFL season. Not only does Shane Steichen have his squad off to a 4-1 start to the year, they’re playing some of the most satisfying football of any team in the league.
Daniel Jones is having a career revival in a new city. Jonathan Taylor is making an early case for NFL Offensive Player of the Year. Rookie Tyler Warren has been ever better than advertised. And the new-look defense under Lou Anarumo has been dominant in the turnover battle.
Everything seems to be coming together for the Colts to be taken seriously. The consistency week in and week out is impressive. After beating the Las Vegas Raiders 40-6 on Sunday, the Colts lead the league in average margin of victory after their first five games (14.8). Not only are they winning games, they’re doing so in dominant fashion.
It’s easy to become infatuated with the early results, especially given how refreshing it is to see the Colts competitive again. All the pieces are there — consistency on offense with a plethora of talent, a strong pass rush and effective defensive scheme and the right coaching staff in place. It just feels like there’s no true telling of what Indy’s ceiling is this year until they do battle with fellow contenders.
Let’s take a step back and look at who the Colts have played so far.
Through five weeks, the Colts’ opponents have a combined 5-14 record. Only the Los Angeles Rams (3-2) have multiple wins, and the Tennessee Titans, a divisional opponent who the Colts walloped on the road two weeks ago, remains winless. Of the four opponents they’ve defeated, only the Broncos have scored more than 20 points per game this season (23.4). That won’t get any better next week when the Arizona Cardinals (20.6) come to visit.
All that to say that Anarumo’s defense hasn’t truly been tested. The product on the field has been iffy at times against these lackluster offenses, but with Jones leading the Colts own offense to 32.6 points per game so far this season, it’s been easy to overlook some of the fracturing.
With time when injuries in the secondary subside and the defense is back to full strength, perhaps we’ll see an improvement from the 217 passing yards per game they’re allowing so far. But even then, when the opposition gets tougher, we simply just have no way of understanding what kind of performance the Colts will produce.
The loss to Los Angeles is the best sample we’ve seen. And even then, the Colts played well enough to win the game. Had AD Mitchell not had his mistakes, the Colts would have scored 34 total points and come away with a win.
Beating up on the Raiders is simply just proof that the Colts have the makeup to bounce back from adversity. It reveals nothing about how they match up against other contenders in the AFC. Plus, we’ve seen teams start hot like this before in the recent past, only to see their seasons end in disappointment after receiving significant hype.
Take the 2021 Cardinals. After 13 weeks, then-head coach Kliff Kingsbury had his team at 10-2 and holding the No. 1 seed in the NFC. They would go on to 1-4 over their final five games, lose their first round bye and end up in a wildcard spot. They were promptly bounced in the first round by the Rams, 34-11.
The 2022 Minnesota Vikings are another example. After a 13-4 regular season, they would also lose in the first round of the postseason to the 9-7-1 New York Giants — ironically led by Daniel Jones.
It happens in the AFC too. In 2020, the Pittsburgh Steelers began 11-0, lost four of their last five, and lost to the Cleveland Browns in the wild card.
So, it’s definitely possible to peak too early. And the Colts, with all their beating up on bad teams so far, are in danger of falling into that category. Being able to compete with good teams like the Rams does show some promise, but without more opportunities against the best of the best, it’s hard to tell just how good the Colts can really be.
Looking at the schedule, other than two divisional games with the Jacksonville Jaguars, there are only two or three true difficult matchups, all on the road. A second trip to Los Angeles to face the Chargers in two weeks, a date with the reigning AFC champions in Kansas City at the end of November and another west coast visit with the Seattle Seahawks 11 days before Christmas.
Until the Colts get to these matchups, it’s hard to say for certain just how competitive they can be in the AFC. Yes, it’s possible they pass all these tests and turn out to be legitimate. But for now, I would take the current success with a grain of salt.
