The Indiana Fever made a statement in game two of their first round playoff series against the Atlanta Dream, racing out to a 77-60 wire to wire victory. Indiana’s championship hopes live to see another day, as the Fever travel back to Atlanta for the penultimate third game of the series at 7:30 p.m. Thursday.
The Dream struggled to put points on the board throughout Tuesday evening’s game, and put lightly, displayed one of less impressive performances of their season. A critical aspect of Atlanta’s offensive identity is efficiently shooting a high volume of triples, and the team shot 26% from beyond the arc Tuesday night. A sizable portion of those made triples went through only after the Fever had amassed a double-digit lead with a handful of minutes left in the game.
On top of that, Atlanta guard Allisha Gray was consistently stifled on the way to the basket, eliminating another linchpin of the offensive attack for the Dream. Gray ended the night with nine points. Across the board, Atlanta appeared flustered, disjointed and ineffective offensively.
While it took Indiana until the second half to truly pull away, the wind rushed through their sails very early in the game. The Fever, playing at home and in survival mode, took advantage of a lackluster performance from the Dream to shut down and dominate a higher-seeded opponent and extend the series.
The focus now shifts to game three, as both teams catch a flight back to Atlanta, where one of their seasons will end. Game three occurring in Atlanta significantly disadvantages the Fever. Not only are the Dream now in survival mode with their 2025 championship hopes on the brink of extinction, but the Fever have been noticeably less successful on the road this year.
Not counting the playoff loss in Atlanta in game one, the Fever are 1-4 in their past five road games against playoff teams. While that may sound like an obvious statistic that is easy to justify, note that the Dream were 4-1 in their last five road regular season games against playoff teams.
Put simply, championship contending teams win on the road against quality opponents. The Fever have not been able to do so for the most part, especially since the last time superstar Caitlin Clark saw the floor on July 15. That statistical gap of course plays to the advantage of the Dream, and creates a scenario in which the task of further extending the Fever’s postseason run is now a much more difficult one.
That being said, the Indiana Fever are still alive. Head coach Stephanie White and every member of the organization has every intention of advancing past the first round this Thursday and continuing the quest for a championship. The question, in that case, involves the boxes that are necessary to check if the Fever are to do so.
Typically, Indiana shoots with a level of efficiency inside Gainbridge Fieldhouse that is unattainable on the road. At various points during the regular season, a promising home win would lift the spirits of the team and fans, only to be followed up by a deflating road loss in which offensive efficiency took a nose dive. However, that is not the case in the first round playoff series against the Dream.
Indiana shot 42% from the field, ranking in the middle of the pack amongst playoff shooting percentages across league so far, and didn’t pull away from the maladroit Dream until well into the second half. While the home court advantage certainly played a role, this win was defined by grit, toughness and hustle. Indiana outrebounded the best rebounding team in the league this regular season and held every Atlanta starter aside from Rhyne Howard to single-digit scoring.
When entering a road, playoff environment in an elimination game, toughness and hustle are a much more replicable form of success than effective shooting. If Indiana carries its toughness, hustle and intensity into Atlanta, its chances of competing for the win down the stretch substantially increase.
In addition to the offensive approach to the game that is vital to Indiana’s success, this game will likely be won and lost in large part while the Fever are on defense. Atlanta won 30 games and earned the three seed in the WNBA Playoffs primarily through shooting a high volume of 3s very efficiently, while boasting the statistically best rebounding frontcourt in the league. The Dream backcourt pursues a multitude of high-value shots, and if they miss, are often met with a second chance.
With that in mind, there are two points of contention that will influence the outcome of this game.
Aaliyah Boston and Natasha Howard must outcompete Brittney Griner and Bri Jones on the glass
When shots from the perimeter go up, the difference between a defensive rebound and an offensive rebound is the difference between an extra possession gained or lost for either side. If the frontcourt presence of the Fever is more dominant than that of the Dream, Atlanta will see fewer second-chance opportunities, preventing them from setting forth scoring runs that doom the Fever to defeat.
Defending the perimeter is absolutely critical to Indiana’s hopes of advancing past the first round
Gray, Howard, Jordin Canada, and Naz Hillmon are all threats from beyond the perimeter who play significant minutes for the Dream. Defending the arc and preventing a landslide of triples from creating a wide scoring disparity, as the Dream have done to win so many games this season, is important for the Fever to stay alive in the game and the postseason at large.
All in all, the Indiana Fever are simultaneously a game away from elimination and a game away from the semifinals of the WNBA Playoffs. Regardless of how game three plays out, but especially if the Fever win, Indiana’s effort to remain competitive despite the impact of the injuries they have endured has been incredibly impressive.
Maintaining the toughness and hustle present in Indiana’s game two victory, as well as outrebounding the Dream and restricting their ability to produce from beyond the arc, are all essential components of Indiana’s performance in game three. If all three of these boxes are checked, the Fever will have a strong chance of knocking out the Atlanta Dream.
