For the first time this season, the Indiana Fever are at a point where they have played more games without Caitlin Clark than they have with her. As a result, the anticipation of the return of Indiana’s No. 22 has become one of the more notable active storylines in the WNBA. The Fever, though, find themselves in a fascinating position — after holding a win streak with Clark on the bench for a season high of five games. Clark suffered an ankle injury, the Indianapolis Star reported this week, and is still working her way back from a groin injury.
A timetable for her return has yet to be announced, meaning a few questions can be raised about the future of the Fever in 2025. What weaknesses will Clark remedy when she returns? How will Clark’s return complicate the team’s development? What are the Fever capable of with Clark consistently on the floor?
Before those questions are addressed, let’s look into how the Fever are currently doing ahead of the return of their superstar.
Background: How are the Fever doing right now?
By and large, Indiana has learned how to win without Clark on the floor. Kelsey Mitchell, Sydney Colson and Aari McDonald improved at point guard in terms of ball distribution and pace in transition. Despite Clark and her stellar assist numbers residing on the bench, the Fever found a way to reach Aliyah Boston and Natasha Howard in the post and create quality shots from outside as well.
Consider the following relevant numbers — against Connecticut on July 15, the last time Clark saw the floor, she recorded seven assists as Howard and Boston combined for 29 points. An August contest without Clark saw McDonald primarily taking the ball up the floor against Seattle, where McDonald recorded nine assists and saw the Howard and Boston duo rack up 37 points in the frontcourt. Keep in mind, Seattle has a top four defensive rating in the WNBA, while Connecticut ranks outside the Top 10.
It is true that across the board the Fever are much better offensively in just about every category with Clark on the floor. However, the stat comparison highlighted above is a microcosm of the idea that the Fever haven’t been too shabby without her either.
As a matter of fact, over the course of its five-game win streak, Indiana’s net efficiency rating was the third best in the WNBA. Meaning the Fever had been playing like a championship contending team with an All-Star team captain on the bench. Not bad.
Devastatingly, McDonald, Colson and Sophie Cunningham have been ruled out for the season following injuries occurring during the month of August. As a result, of course, the success found with McDonald commandeering the offense came to a grinding halt and will leave the Fever scrambling until Clark returns.
The triumphs achieved prior to those injuries, however, are still important to note. Unlike last season, it is now clear that the Fever are not entirely dependent on Clark to win games. The rest of the roster in 2025 is strong enough to stay afloat without her, indicating that this team as a whole is elevating to a point of legitimate championship contention.
Question No. 1: What weaknesses will Clark remedy when she returns?
Although Indiana has managed to stay afloat without their superstar, Clark undeniably impacts the game in ways that cannot be replaced. She has unbelievable range from beyond the perimeter, stretching the defense and expanding her and her team’s ability to score. Her court vision is unparalleled, giving her teammates a litany of scoring opportunities as well.
Additionally, what the Fever have lacked in Clark’s absence, is someone to take the final shot in a close game. Indiana has a tendency to miserably fail on the final few possessions of close games, fumbling away wins as a result. With No. 22 on the floor, there is a clear understanding of where the ball needs to be on those final minutes… and full confidence that her shots will fall when they matter most.
This team is 7-9 in clutch games, with the majority of those losses occurring without Clark, and her return will undoubtedly be accompanied by an uptick in those numbers. The frequent collapses in close games are a major reason why the win/loss record does not reflect the high quality play the Fever put on the court. Caitlin’s return should help remedy the situation, and possibly lift this team to home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
Question No. 2: How will Clark’s return complicate this team’s development?
There is a logical trap many fans have fallen into as the anticipation for Caitlin Clark’s return mounts… If the Fever are playing like a top three team, and about to drop their far and away best player back into the lineup, they must then immediately be amongst the best teams in the league… right? Not quite.
Clark’s return to the floor will have an array of positive impacts on the team’s performance, as we know. However, it will also come with a considerable share of newfound struggles. For starters, a fully healthy starter will be replaced by one likely still reacclimating to full speed action. It will take time for Clark to find her groove shooting the basketball, and will likely not be pushing the ball down the floor at her usual breakneck speed.
On top of that, the role that each player on the floor fills will shift. Guards will no longer be receiving passes from McDonald or Cunningham, but now Clark. Mitchell will no longer be expected to consistently score from outside, now Clark is. Defensively, the rest of the team will have to pick up the slack that exists because McDonald’s disruptive perimeter skills are on the bench.
Long term, the Fever will be better. In the short term, it’s not unthinkable that Indiana suffers a few frustrating losses as the group readjusts to what the Fever are with Clark on the floor. To illustrate this point, let’s revisit the last time Clark returned from injury this season. Her first game back turned out to be a 19-point loss at home to an expansion team. Yikes.
Success will take time. The Fever’s playoff seeding may be hurt by the reacclimation period… but as long as Clark returns with enough time for the team to readjust, reorient, and reach their full potential before the playoffs? The sky is the limit in Indiana.
Question No. 3: What are the Fever capable of with Clark consistently on the floor?
The WNBA is a complicated place. Eight teams in the middle of the standings could plausibly miss the playoffs or secure home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. With only a handful of games remaining in the regular season, every one means the world to each team’s championship hopes.
In Indiana, each time Clark steps off the floor in pain, the question of whether or not the Fever are a championship contender resurfaces. As it stands in August, the answer to that question is yes.
If Clark returns soon enough and the Fever ramp up to performing at an elite level consistently, the sky truly is the limit. After all, the Fever have wins over the Lynx, Liberty, Dream and Mercury… the four teams ahead of Indiana in the WNBA standings at this time.
If the team can reach its full potential before the postseason hits, Fever fans will have plenty to be excited about. For now, though, we wait. As that full potential will only be reached after Clark throws on the No. 22 jersey once again.
